ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measure employs the international extreme poverty line of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. The country’s poverty rate at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. This rise positioned Pakistan as the primary contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional group.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together make up another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations account for roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP constitutes about 14% of the global extreme poor, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, this region remains the only one within the World Bank classification where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
Additionally, Pakistan experienced a worsening at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty threshold, which is used for lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people below this level rose by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached approximately 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The report attributed this deterioration to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic adjustment.
Poverty intensifies following consecutive shocks
These recent findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s estimated total of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
While Pakistan’s economic growth has shown improvement from recent lows, poverty indicators continue to be high. The October regional update projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and forecasted 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is estimated at 7.1% for 2026, with a projection of 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification influences the headline statistic
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current MENAAP classification, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this adjustment, the World Bank categorized both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government clarified that the change was purely administrative and statistical, and did not affect the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the updated grouping altered regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also presented a less optimistic outlook for the regional economy in 2026. It forecasted a contraction of 2.1% in MENAAP’s output after a 3.3% growth in 2025, citing conflict and disruptions to energy, logistics, and trade as key factors weighing on economic activity. Developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain relatively resilient in this context. The report predicts a growth of 4.3% for this group in 2026, although rising food and energy prices continue to exert pressure on household purchasing power across several economies.