PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might see its daily vessel movements reduced to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to the canal’s new administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and highlighted the potential impact amid El Niño’s influence on reservoir levels. The canal depends heavily on freshwater from rainfall-fed lakes to operate its locks, and the Panama Canal Authority has already initiated phased capacity reductions due to lower-than-expected precipitation in the watershed.
Starting Sept. 3, the canal provided nine daily Neopanamax slots along with 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 available capacities. From Sept. 15 onward, Panamax availability will decrease to 23 slots, bringing the combined daily total down to 32. These adjustments are a response to weaker rainfall during Panama’s wet season and reduced inflows into the canal’s watershed. To conserve water, officials are implementing measures such as tighter booking controls and water-saving protocols while closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
In fiscal year 2026, the canal averaged 35 daily transits through June 30, based on official operational data. Between October and June, it recorded 10,726 transits, marking a 5.2% increase compared to the same period last year. These figures precede the recent rainfall decline, which has led to more stringent operational limits. The canal connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and plays a critical role in facilitating major trade routes for containers, energy shipments, bulk commodities, and other cargoes.
Water shortages limit transit capacity
Canal locks depend on freshwater sourced from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during transit. Consequently, reservoir levels directly influence the number of vessels permitted to pass during extended dry spells. During the severe 2023 drought, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake’s water levels fell to unusually low levels. However, capacity later recovered as rainfall improved and conservation efforts helped stabilize water supplies for both canal operations and public use.
As part of its water management strategies, the canal has also adjusted vessel draft limits. On Sept. 4, officials deferred a planned reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains in effect after analyzing Gatun Lake’s current levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits are essential for determining how deeply vessels can be loaded, especially for heavier cargoes, and are a key operational constraint.
Changes in booking policies as capacity diminishes
With capacity tightening, the canal has also revised its booking and auction procedures. Daily auction slots now categorize vessels based on cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When other conditions are equal, full container ships with the highest capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Authorities have urged vessels without reservations to use the booking system, as limited capacity can lead to longer waiting times. Booking confirmation remains the only assured method to secure a transit date.
No additional order has been issued to reduce the daily limit to 29 ships. The administrator indicated that such a level could be considered for February or March if dry conditions continue. Canal officials are continuously monitoring rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels to determine if further operational adjustments are necessary. Additionally, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project to enhance long-term water storage. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader effort to guarantee water supplies for canal functions and more than half of the country’s population.